Conference Revelations
Blitzkrieg Bop

Is the Church Growing?

At Saturday's afternoon sesssion of General Conference, the statistical report was read.   According to the report, which is being discussed here ,the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints added 285,047 members in 2005.  But, the devil is in the details.

The average number of members per stake has been approximately 4,600 for the last few years.  For example, in 2004, the church averaged 4,606 members per stake.  In 2005, the church says it added 285,047 total members (93,150 children of record and 243,108 converts).   But the church only added 36 stakes.  Using the 4,600 number for members per stake, the church ought to have added about 62 stakes in 2005.  Put another way, adding 36 stakes one would expect the total membership to have increased by about 165,600 rather than 285,047.  One possibility is that the church has simply increased the member/stake ratio.

Another possibility is that the numbers don't quite add up.  Another anomaly: converts and children of record account for a gross increase of 336,258 new members in 2005.  The net increase in membership equals 285,047.  The difference is 51,211.  The church is saying, then, that only 51,211 members died, were excommunicated, or asked to have their names removed from the church rolls in 2005.  Doing the math, it occurs to me that the church is saying that, on average, 2 members per ward or branch died or otherwise left the church in 2005.  Does that sound right?

Comments

mayan elephant

these numbers are very contrived. it looks like they hired an investment banker to make the numbers "whatever you want them to be."

have you ever been in a ward with 450 members? if one assumes that branches often have fewer than a hundred and sometimes just dozens, one must figure that the membership per ward number is much larger and a certain indicator that the church is losing its grip on people. thats a good thing.

hey, what happened to the update on the number of temple ordinances that have been performed? do we have to wait for the fall to see that whopping disappointment? that is going to be something fun to see. perhaps we can get the real numbers without the repeat work for the dead.

Equality

"perhaps we can get the real numbers without the repeat work for the dead."
Or without all the Nazis and their victims.

See http://www.utlm.org/onlineresources/hitlertemplework.htm
and
http://nowscape.com/mormon/hitler_temple_3.htm

Hellmut Lotz

I find the birth rate numbers interesting. If these numbers are accurate then Mormons no longer replace themselves.

That can't be right. It is true that Mormon families have been getting smaller but not that small.

I think that the low ration reflects poor conversion practices and self-serving counting that inflates the total membership numbers.

those links are disturbing. what have i ever done to you to deserve this? do tell.

mayan elephant

hellmut, please clarify, are you assuming that the 93,000 births cant replace the reported death rate or the statistically reliable death rate of approximately 100,000.

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